Cox Automotive predicts new automobile market development regardless of headwinds
The brand new automobile market has entered 2025 with renewed momentum and cautious optimism significantly for electrical autos and rising manufacturers regardless of geopolitical and financial headwinds, in response to Cox Automotive’s newest automobile gross sales forecasts.
Philip Nothard, perception director at Cox Automotive, believes the business is adjusting to a “new international manufacturing actuality” formed by China’s speedy rise and altering shopper calls for.
“Over the past 18 months, we’ve seen a basic shift in the place and the way automobiles are being constructed,” mentioned Nothard. “China’s manufacturing surge has been nothing in need of transformative.”
New knowledge from Cox Automotive exhibits China’s passenger automobile output grew by 29% between 2019 and 2024, giving it a commanding 40.6% share of world manufacturing. In the meantime, the EU27 and UK noticed their mixed output fall by 21%, shedding 5.1% of their share.
“China’s skill to produce its home market is staggering,” Nothard added. “Solely 3% of its car gross sales come from imports, in comparison with almost 48% within the U.S. That form of resilience has large implications for the remainder of the world.”
Reflecting wider market warning, the worldwide manufacturing forecast for 2024 has been revised down 3% to simply over 89 million autos. For the UK, that equates to 2.34% of the worldwide whole.
UK market exhibits resilience
In the meantime, the UK new automobile market is off to a powerful begin in 2025, with greater than 580,000 registrations in March – the perfect month-to-month determine since 2019.
“This can be a optimistic sign,” mentioned Nothard. “The market is recovering — not simply in fleet, which continues to dominate, but in addition amongst non-public consumers. That confidence is progressively returning.”
Cox Automotive forecasts 2,084,477 new automobile registrations within the UK for 2025, a 29.1% improve from the post-pandemic low in 2022, although nonetheless 9.8% down on 2019 ranges.
“This rebound hinges on the continued success of latest entrants and their skill to construct robust relationships with UK sellers,” Nothard famous. “In the event that they hold their present trajectory, passing the 2 million mark this 12 months could be very achievable.”
New model disruption
Chinese language manufacturers proceed to make important inroads into the UK market. BYD, for instance, secured a 1.6% market share in Q1 2025 – a 625% year-on-year improve – outperforming a number of legacy manufacturers.
“We’re seeing disruption on a scale that’s forcing everybody to rethink their methods,” mentioned Nothard. “BYD’s rise is a wake-up name. With their premium model Denza on the best way, and different marques like Jaecoo and Omoda gaining floor, the sport is altering quick.”
“Legacy producers want to maneuver shortly to guard their market share and adapt to a world the place new gamers aren’t simply collaborating – they’re main.”
In keeping with Nothard, stakeholders should now align extra intently with Asia’s rising function in automotive manufacturing and adapt their sourcing, logistics, and product requirements accordingly.
“There’s a threat of being left behind if we don’t alter to this new actuality,” he warned. “European provide is turning into extra constrained, whereas Asia is quickly increasing.”
He additionally cautioned in opposition to chasing quantity on the expense of profitability. “We’ve bought to guard margins. Which means providing actual worth to shoppers, particularly as extra individuals transition to electrified autos. Experience, belief, and infrastructure are going to be completely essential.”
In a market outlined by flux and fragmentation, Nothard believes adaptability would be the key to long-term success.
“The business has weathered immense disruption over the previous decade,” he mentioned. “What issues now’s how we reply to the subsequent wave – as a result of it’s already right here.”
